Will Romney Win Popular Vote, Obama Electoral College?

Just 12 years ago, something happened in presidential politics that happened only twice before in American history. The candidate elected Presidentof the United States in the Electoral College did not win the popular vote. We may be looking at a similar situation in 2012.

The Republican nominee, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, received 500,000 less votes nationwide than the Democratic nominee, Vice President Al Gore, but Bush defeated Gore in the Electoral College 271-267 to be elected the 43rd President of the United States. Some pundits see a situation where Mitt Romney will best President Obama in the popular vote but the president winning re-election in the Electoral College. This will have tremendous negative effect on President Obama's ability to lead in a second term.

If this scenario comes to pass, President Obama will be weakened by:

1. A view by many in the general public that the election was somehow illegitimate since the candidate who received the most votes did not win. President Obama and the Democrats will be attacked by their own words following the 2000 election, undermining presidential creditability.

2. Many Democrat Senators swept into office in the Obama tide in 2008 in Republican or swing states will be up for re-election in 2014. Many, if not all, will want to distance themselves from a president who could notmuster even a plurality of votes. These Democrats may give the Republicans the votes in the Senate to pass the House budget, repeal and replace of ObamaCare, and other intitatives.

3. Every 2nd Term president is lame duck. However, most don't lose relevance until late into the term due primarily to every re-elected president since World War II has increased their popular and electoral margins over their intial election and given a mandate for the 2nd Term. With no agenda, weakened by a non-decisive win, opponents energized, allies demoralized, the chance of success is slim.

4. There are 613 less Democrats in elected office nationwide from local offices to the Congress since President Obama was elected in November 2008. Even if President Obama is re-elected next week, that number is expected to grow.

The stalemate we have had the last year and a half is likely to continue.

Before the comment section overflows with comments that President Bush wasn't limited as I suggest President Obama will be under this scenario.

1. Allthough President Bush was not top vote getter in 2000, he did earn a far greater vote percentage than the previous two GOP nominees. Bush was credited for increasing Republican success in 2000 down ballot.

2. President Bush was succeeding a president from the opposite party, making it far easier to establish himself against the staus quo. Obama will be succeeding himself.

3. President Bush had an agenda to implement immediately and worked with Democrats to pass, including the now famous "Bush Tax Cuts" of 2001. Obama long rails against these tax cuts but continues to renew them. Obama has threatened to allow them to expire on December 31.

One last presidential fact to ponder. Every president elected to a second term since World War II has seen a far less successful 2nd Term as opposed to the first. Dwight Eisenhower had personal health problems and a severe recession. Lyndon Johnson saw the Vietnam War escalate and civil strife explode. Richard Nixon seen an Arab Oil Embargo make gas prices spike and resigned a day before impeachment for a coverup of a GOP burglary of Democrat HQ. Ronald Reagan saw a stock market crash and the Iran-Contra Affair. Bill Clinton saw his personal character failures come front and center, impeached for perjury in a sexual harrassment lawsuit, and had to admit to a sexual relationship with a 21 year old intern. George W. Bush was dogged by a hostile press and saw the economic collapse following the housing and credit bubble burst in 2008.

A very unremarkable first term for Obama does not promise a successful second. Food for thought.