Election 2012, Part 2 The GOP Nomination

As promised, here is Part 2 of my assessment of the 2012 presidential race. In my previous post, I outlined why I thought that Mitt Romney would defeat . Of course, before that happens, he will need to get the GOP nomination.

Ever since the primary season started, the front runners have been Mitt Romney and the latest "flavor of the month." First it was Michele Bachman, then it was Rick Perry, now, at least for a moment, it is Herman Cain. That's a function of the Tea Party's dissatisfaction with Romney. What the Tea Party seems to want is some kind of conservative purity. As soon as someone deviates, they are out. Ask Rick Perry how his offering of in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants worked out for him. Cain's issue of sexual harassment, or at least his problems of dealing with the allegations, may very well bump him from the top. Who's next? Newt?

Herman Cain's rise in popularity stems form the fact that he has, for the most part, said all of the right things. Even better, since he's never held any public office, he has no paper trail that would offend anyone. As governors, Romney, Huntsman and Perry had to make some tough decisions. Santorum, Bachman, Paul and Gingrich all served in Congress, and have a voting record that can be picked apart. Inevitable, there will be something for the purists not to like.

Are people ready to elect someone president who has never held office before? The last time that happened, it was Dwight Eisenhower and he was the Allied Commander in WWII. The one before that was Herbert Hoover. Herman Cain is a charismatic person who says all of the right things but has no experience in running a government. It's deja vu all over again. You can say the same thing about Michele Bachman.

Former Senator Rick Santorum sounds like a decent guy, but his focus has always been on social issues. Every election cycle has issues that define the outcome. In 2000 it was character. Let's face it, Bush was more likable than Gore. Social issues dominated a good part of the 2004 cycle. Gay marriage referenda in several key states brought out conservative voters and helped Bush get re-elected. In 2012 the economy is the front and center issue. People are more concerned with home values than family values.

Ron Paul is, well Ron Paul. He has about 10-15 percent of the GOP faithful, but unfortunately that's about where he caps out. He has some good ideas but he also tends to go off the deep end sometimes.

Probably the smartest person running may be Newt Gingrich, but to say that Newt has some baggage is an understatement. I'm not sure he could overcome so many negatives even though some of that may be undeserved. Besides, I think voters want to look ahead, and Newt is so 1990s.

The person who I originally thought could win the nomination was Rick Perry, Governor of Texas. In an election cycle where jobs and the economy are forefront, his record in Texas was appealing. Perry's problem is that, as a candidate, he is not ready for prime time. It seems that in every presidential primary, there is some late arrival who is going to shake things up. In 2008, it was Fred Thompson who was going to rescue the GOP. In 2004, it was Gen. Wesley Clark who was going to save the Democrats. The problem is that running a successful campaign takes years of groundwork. A candidate needs to define and differentiate himself. People like Rick Perry, who jump in late because they see polls that say they have a chance also fizzle pretty quick when their unpreparedness show.

Mitt Romney has been running for president for the last five or so years. He's crafted his message so he's comfortable talking about it. His economic policy is detailed and not just a slogan (999 anyone?) and he's well versed discussing it (have you seen Perry stumble through his plan?).

In an election where the electorate is worried about jobs and how they'll stay afloat, Romney's business background will appeal to voters. Unlike Herman Cain, Romney's also run a state and understands how government is very different than business. Having good ideas is meaningless if you can't get them put into public policy. Sure, he's flip flopped on social issues, but that's not what this election is going to be about.

In the end, Republicans want to defeat Obama. They may disagree on who is the best person to run against him, but once that's figured out, they will get behind him. I think he's answered for his cardinal sin of Romneycare in Massachusetts. It may just end up that Mitt Romney is the last person standing.