Is bin Laden's Death a Sign That U.S. Election History Could Repeat Itself?

A president in his first term pulls off a major, overdue military victor. This president, looking at his upcoming reelection campaign realized that he has hit a home run. Better yet, his approval numbers are through the roof.  The only real question is what relatively unknown candidate from the other side will get the dubious honor of getting blown out in the next presidential election.

This is a feeling being echoed in the other party. Anybody who is anybody had already opted out of running, perhaps seeing that there is no way he can win. It seems as if the only candidates interested in running are those who want to use this cycle as a means of getting themselves known to set up a future run.

No, I’m not referring to Obama, in the aftermath of his heroic operation to put Osama Bin Laden out of our misery; I’m referring to President George H.W. Bush in his victory over Saddam Hussein in the first Gulf war.

Remember that one? Bush’s popularity was at an all-time high and his reelection was all but a formality.  The only Democrat that had any national stature, New York Governor Mario Cuomo, had decided to stay in Albany and not risk his political capital on a suicide run against the popular president. The other candidates were a collection of nobodies, wannabes and neverweres.

Remember how that worked out?

The economy took a bad turn and some unknown governor from Arkansas became our next president.

The first part of this story; the part about pulling off a major military victory has just played itself out again. The second part, the part about a popular incumbent facing off against some relative unknowns appears to be playing out again. The third part; the part about the economy, oops!

Not so fast. Osama’s initiation into eternal damnation may not coincide with Obama’s inauguration into term two. Like James Carville said "it’s the economy stupid." The elation of finding bin Laden will soon give way to the reality of finding employment. High hopes will soon give way to high gas prices.

As far as the “unknowns” on the other side, remember that Bill Clinton was a nobody in 1990. Come November of 2012, the Republican nominee will also be very well known, especially after the long primary season.

The 2012 election will be a referendum on Obama. Most likely, he will be judged on the economy. If things are going well, Obama will, most likely win regardless of the GOP nominee. If unemployment is still high, if gas prices are still high or if average Americans are still worried about their financial future, a Republican can win. Unless, of course, they nominate a radical fringe candidate, or Trump.

We can feel good about Bin Laden’s demise. We can have opinions about abortion, gays, guns, etc., but in the end, Americans want to be able to work and provide for their families. If Obama can get us there, he will win; if not, we’ll see.